On December 4, Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released its latest real GDP numbers for U.S. counties and they show that Shelby County generally lags behind its peers.
The real GDP is a more accurate means of measuring economic performance because it removes the distortion of inflation. Economic development agencies such as the Greater Memphis Chamber regularly refer to the current dollar GDP levels which include inflation and in turn makes the number larger.
MEMPHIS REGION:
MSA
2020 – $75.7 billion
2021 – $79.9 billion, +6.3%
2022 – $79.7 billion, -0.2%
2023 – $81.2 billion, +1.8%
Shelby County
2020 – $63.5 billion
2021 – $66.8 billion, +5.3%
2022 – $66.4 billion, -0.7%
2023 – $67.5 billion, +1.6%
DeSoto County
2020 – $6.2 billion
2021 – $6.7 billion, +7.5
2022 – $6.9 billion, +2.4
2023 – $7.1 billion, +3.3
Fayette County
2020 – $1.2 billion
2021 – $1.3 billion, 10.4%
2022 – $1.5 billion, 10.3%
2023 – $1.5 billion, 4.2%
Tipton County
2020 – $1.2 billion
2021 – $1.3 billion, 6.8%
2022 – $1.3 billion, -0.3%
2023 – $1.3 billion, +.1%
Crittenden County
2020 – $1.7 billion
2021 – $1.8 billion, +0.4%
2022 – $1.7 billion, -1.8%
2023 – $1.7 billion, +2.1%
TENNESSEE COUNTIES:
Davidson County (Nashville)
2020 – $71.5 billion
2021 – $80.0 billion, +11.8%
2022 – $84.5 billion, +5.7%
2023 – $87.5 billion, +3.6%
Hamilton County (Chattanooga)
2020 – $26.0 billion
2021 – $27.7 billion, +6.3%
2022 – $29.0 billion, +4.9%
2023 – $29.0 billion, -0.2%
Knox County (Knoxville)
2020 – $28.1 billion
2021 – $30.7 billion, +9.2%
2022 – $31.7 billion, +3.2%
2023 – $32.6 billion, +2.8%
Madison County (Jackson)
2020 – $5.9 billion
2021 – $6.4 billion, +9.5%
2022 – $6.4 billion, -0.9%
2023 – $6.5 billion, +1.7%
PEER COUNTIES:
Wayne County (Detroit)
2020 – $93.0 billion
2021 – $97.4 billion, +4.8%
2022 – $101.0 billion, +3.7%
2023 – $102.4 billion, +1.3%
Baltimore County (Baltimore)
2020 – $51.9 billion
2021 – $54.0 billion, +3.9%
2022 – $56.6 billion, +4.9%
2023 – $57.0 billion, +0.6%
Marion County (Indianapolis)
2020 – $94.3 billion
2021 – $100.2 billion, +6.2%
2022 – $105.2 billion, +5.0%
2023 – $106.8 billion, +1.2%
Jefferson County (Louisville)
2020 – $56.2 billion
2021 – $58.8 billion, +4.5%
2022 – $59.9 billion, +2.0%
2023 – $60.9 billion, +1.7%
Fulton County (Atlanta)
2020 – $180.2 billion
2021 – $191.8 billion, +6.5%
2022 – $197.4 billion, +2.9%
2023 – $198.5 billion, +0.9%
Duval County (Jacksonville)
2020 – $67.8 billion
2021 – $72.8 billion, +7.3%
2022 – $77.3 billion, +6.3%
2023 – $79.9 billion, +3.4%
Orleans (New Orleans)
2020 – $22.2 billion
2021 – $22.9 billion, +2.8%
2022 – $23.6 billion, +3.1%
2023 – $23.8 billion, +1.0%
St. Louis County (St. Louis)
2020 – $81.2 billion
2021 – $86.0 billion, +6.0%
2022 – $89.1 billion, +3.7%
2023 – $91.8 billion, +3.0%
Mecklenberg (Charlotte)
2020 – $120.1 billion
2021 – $127.4 billion, +6.0%
2022 – $131.7 billion, +3.4%
2023 – $139.2 billion, +5.6%
Wake County (Raleigh) 2020 –
2020 – $83.3 billion
2021 – $91.4 billion, +9.8%
2022 – $95.8 billion, +4.8%
2023 – $100.2 billion, +4.6%
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
2020 – $98.2 billion
2021 – $101.3 billion, +8.3%
2022 – $104.6 billion, +4.9%
2023 – $104.4 billion, -0.8%
Milwaukee County (Milwaukee)
2020 – $56.5 billion
2021 – $59.0 billion, +4.5%
2022 – $60.6 billion, +2.8%
2023 – $61.5 billion, +1.3%
Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City)
2020 – $55.4 billion
2021 – $55.6 billion, +.04%
2022 – $54.3 billion, -2.4%
2023 – $56.7 billion, +4.4%
Bexar County (San Antonio)
2020 – $105.3 billion
2021 – $110.1 billion, +4.5%
2022 – $117.5 billion, +6.7%
2023 – $121.4 billion, +3.3%
Travis County (Austin)
2020 – $125.9 billion
2021 – $140.4 billion, +11.5%
2022 – $154.1 billion, +9.7%
2023 – $159.6 billion, +3.6%
Dallas County (Dallas)
2020 – $263.5 billion
2021 – $283.6 billion, +7.6%
2022 – $297.6 billion, +4.9%
2023 – $304.5 billion, +2.3%
Richmond County (Richmond)
2020 – $23.7 billion
2021 – $24.7 billion, +4.4%
2022 – $25.9 billion, +4.8%
2023 – $27.4 billion, +5.7%
Jefferson County (Birmingham)
2020 – $45.5 billion
2021 – $48.0 billion, +5.4%
2022 – $48.9 billion, +1.9%
2023 – $49.4 billion, +2.1%
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It would be good to see the same GDP data at the MSA level, which better represents the local economy.
A good day always begins with a new set of numbers. And these are good ones. I am going to add to your analysis. I started in 2019, since that was the year BEFORE the pandemic. Shelby County had a real GDP of $64.7 billion in 2019 — increasing to $67.5 billion in 2023 — 1.06% per year compounded. If you look at nominal or current dollars the growth rate, it was 5.84% per year — no wonder the CofC looks nominal numbers. Real GDP actually fell in 2020 because of the pandemic. Looking at the whole Memphis MSA (counties in TN, AR and MS), real GDP rose from $76.6 billion in 2019 to $81.2 billion in 2023 — 1.43% per year — indicating the smaller counties (totaling only $13.7 billion altogether) grew at faster rate than the core county – Shelby.
Here, I go again. In the Economic Profile of the Memphis MSA, the numbers are all nominal — so inflation is part of the data. Personal income rose from $64.5 billion in 2019 to $70.8 billion in 2023 — 5.46% per year. But the estimated population of the Memphis MSA fell during that same period — only slightly — from 1,336,471 to 1,328,236. But falling population numbers are never seen as a good thing. Per capita income rose from $48,269 in 2019 to $60,083 in 2023 — 5.63% per year. Wages and salaries rose 5.43% per year 2019 to 2023, while proprietors’ income (think profits) rose by 4.21% per year — it was typical over this period that workers’ income rose more quickly than owners’ earnings. BTW, total wages/salaries in 2023 were $44.4 billion (not counting benefits) and proprietors’ income was $.6.6 billion.
Steve: As you requested, I’ve added MSA’s real GDP numbers.
David: Thanks always for your insights.
MSA
2020 – $75.7 billion
2021 – $79.9 billion, +6.3%
2022 – $79.7 billion, -0.2%
2023 – $81.2 billion, +1.8%
Thanks, it’s interesting to see Shelby compared with the MSA and our surrounding counties
Bexar County is actually San Antonio, Texas. Travis County is Austin.
Thanks, Jeff. Good catch. Typing too fast. Travis is added.