Much of the political energy about the criminal justice process these days focuses on the back-end: judges that hear too few cases, cases in court that drag out too long, and a system with little accountability built into it.

And yet, there is also a front-end issue, which is the reality that it is the minority of crimes that are solved by Memphis Police Department.  The percentages send a message that the odds favor the offender because he is unlikely to get caught.

For example, in the current midst of a pandemic of auto thefts, only 15% are “cleared.”  It raises the question: if MPD could improve its “solve rate” to 30%, would the public be willing to pay for more judges, more courts, and more people in jail? 

Meanwhile, around 33% of murders are solved.  Essentially, as the number of murders has gone up, the percentage that are solved has gone down.

In 1970, when there were just under 100 homicides, 86% of them were solved.  By 2020, there were 289 murders and 32% were solved. (Source: AH Datalytics)  In other words, as it has done in so many parts of our lives, the pandemic seems to have upended law enforcement in Memphis as we had known it.  Murders in 2020 soared to 289 – 100 more than the previous year – and all predictions that this year it will soar to a new record this year as Memphis barrels toward 400. 

The pandemic unleashed dramatically more crime, a trend that  was accelerated a year later when the Tennessee Legislature approved permitless gun carry.  

Data Points: Murders by Years/Compared to Other Cities

The previous Smart City Memphis blog post showed that Memphis is a leader in the U.S. for the increase in homicides from 2022 to 2023 at 31.5%.  When it comes to solving crime, its percentages generally fall in the middle of cities that are often held up as comparable ones to Memphis. 

Here are the 2020 clearance rates:

MURDERS
49% – Oklahoma City
47% – Baltimore
43% – Nashville
43% – Jacksonville
42% – Detroit
39% – Chattanooga
37% – Knoxville
32% – Memphis
31% – St. Louis
30% – New Orleans
30% – Newark
26% – Indianapolis
24% – Louisville
24% – Atlanta

RAPE
62% – Indianapolis
56% – Jacksonville
47% – Knoxville
42% – Nashville36% – St. Louis
24% – Memphis
24% – Atlanta
22% – Louisville
22% – Baltimore
20% – Detroit
14% – Oklahoma City
9% – New Orleans
2% – Newark

ROBBERY
42% – Chattanooga
38% – Knoxville
35% – New Orleans
31% – Louisville
23% – Oklahoma City
24% – Newark
23% – St. Louis
22% – Memphis
20% – Indianapolis
20% – Baltimore
19% – Detroit
14% – Atlanta
8% – Nashville


AUTO THEFT
35% -Knoxville
18% – Newark
16% – Oklahoma City
16% – Jacksonville
15% – Memphis
14% – Chattanooga
13% – Indianapolis
8% – New Orleans
6% – Nashville
5% – Atlanta
5% – St. Louis
4% – Detroit

 

Source: AH Datalytics Uniform Crime Report

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