OK, before we start, we acknowledge that correlation is not causation. However, it is striking that the 15-year lethargy of the Memphis regional economy has a parallel trend line that shows lack of progress in increasing our share of millennials and creative workers.
In fact, back when we began, the coveted generation was referred to as the creative class or young professionals before it was college-educated 25-34 year-olds and simply talent.
It’s hard to criticize Memphis for lack of effort. In fact, as the 21st century began, our community was on the frontlines of the national conversation about the importance of creative workers and helped define its dimensions.
It was 15 years ago this week that author of the Rise of the Creative Class and urban studies professor Richard Florida and Memphian and nationally prominent urbanist Carol Coletta co-hosted the Memphis Manifesto Summit for 150 people to write a platform for cities that wanted to attract and retain the “creative class.” It came to be called the “Memphis Manifesto.” It was an outgrowth of work between them before Mr. Florida’s seminal book was even published and which produced the 2002 Memphis Talent Magnet Project – “Technology, Talent, and Tolerance: Attracting the Best and Brightest to Memphis” – that set out an agenda for Memphis to become a hub of young professionals.
Thick Labor Market
Mpact Memphis was formed a year earlier to mobilize young professionals behind an agenda for change and to involve them more deeply into the life of the community. Unfortunately, roughly 10 years later, it closed its door because of lack of financial support from many of the organizations that talked about talent but failed to fund the work to keep and attract it.
It left a vacuum, but that’s not to say Memphis gave up, and because of it, there is the New Memphis Institute, Leadership Memphis’ FastTrack program, Choose 901, undercurrent, Urban League Young Professionals, Greater Memphis Chamber’s SoundCheck program, Mayor Luttrell’s Young Professional Council, and more.
So, while we can be disappointed by the lack of significant progress in attracting and retaining millennials and creative workers, it does not make the work of these organizations any less important. In fact, it makes them crucial.
If anything has changed in the 15 years since our community began to talk about the importance of talent to the economic competitiveness of cities, it is that the emphasis is even more important. Economies of the cities we most envy are fueled by talented young workers in the knowledge-based economy, and they are attracted there by the thickness of the labor force and many options with companies that when seen on their resumes advance their careers.
Memphis is fortunate to have three Fortune 500 companies with tens of thousands of jobs, but there is a drop-off for many professionals when they leave them. Similar opportunities are too few.
Human Capital Ambitions
More to the point, without any announcements in the past 15 years about headquarters coming here, Memphis lacks the allure of peer cities whose economic successes create the image of vibrancy and energy. While EDGE’s tagline is “Transforming the Memphis and Shelby County Economy,” its last email was headlined by a 10-year tax freeze for a warehouse that makes branded blankets and throws, and the breathless excitement over an Amazon warehouse that only deepens our low-wage economy does nothing to retain and attract the kind of workers that Memphis needs if it is to make an economic leap forward.
When we began our conversation about the need for a more educated workforce, we were trying to compete for a generation of workers who were the most mobile in modern history. Millennials move less than the Generation Y and Generation Z, but that still means that a million young adults move each year. As a result, the stakes remain high.
After all, human capital, as measured by the educational attainment of the adult population, is a major driver for cities that have advanced economies. Creating that kind of economy should be our ambition for our community, and because of it, it is a good time to reassess our talent programs, recalibrate our strategies, and recommit to a sustained and generously funded program targeted young adults.
This does not just mean that our targets are just those to be recruited to Memphis, but equally important, there are those who are home-grown. That offers its own challenges. For in-state adults, only 23.1% have bachelor’s degrees, compared to 36.5% for out-of-state adults. (The average for the 100 largest metros is 41% for out-of-state adults and 33% for in-state adults.) The Memphis region has the 15th largest difference between the two groups of workers at 13.4%.
Winners and Losers
Meanwhile, in a listing of the “Winners and Losers of the U.S. Creative Class,” Memphis ranked #49 among the 51 largest regions, which places it in the bottom three of cities with the highest concentrations of creative workers in the total workforce. The following are the top and bottom 10 creative class concentrations:
46.1% – San Jose (#1)
44.6% – Washington, D.C. (#2)
38.8% – Boston (#3)
37.5% – San Francisco (#4)
37.0% – Hartford (#5)
34.7% – Seattle (#6)
34.8% – Baltimore (#7)
34.3% – Denver (#8)
34.1% – Minneapolis-St. Paul (#9)
34.1% – Austin (#10)
28.0% – Birmingham (#42)
27.7% – New Orleans (#43)
27.5% – San Antonio (#44)
27.1% – Jacksonville (#45)
25.7% – Miami (#46)
25.5% – Louisville (#47)
25.3% – Orlando (#48)
25.2% – Memphis (#49)
24.0% – Riverdale (#50)
20.7% – Las Vegas (#51)
Shaking The Economic Lethargy
As for growth of the millennial generation between 2010-15, Memphis ranks #90 among the 100 largest metros for growth of the 18-34 year-old population at 2%. (Nashville was #12 with a 10% increase, and Chattanooga and Knoxville were tied at #64 with 4.4% increases.)
As for the millennial population in the Memphis region, 51.1% are African American, 38.9% are white, 6.2% are Hispanic, and 2.3% are Asian, which speaks again to why Memphis should set a goal of being a hub of high-performing African American talent.
Here’s the thing: millennials now constitute all of the people between 25 and 34 years old, and in the next six years, their numbers will increase by about three million before stabilizing at a fairly high plateau.
The preference for young adults for close-in neighborhoods continues and offers a clear opportunity for Memphis to capitalize on its wealth of distinctive, authentic, and affordable neighborhoods. In 1980, young adults were about 10% more likely than all metro residents to prefer close-in neighborhoods, but today that has risen to 51%, and this wave of young adults will drive a revival of urban living and a revitalization of urban neighborhoods.
There are many factors that lead millennials to choose one city over another: efficient transportation and mobility, cultural attractions, affordability, entrepreneurship, and technology. Memphis can compete with any place when it comes to affordability and cultural attractions, but it lags in the other categories, notably entrepreneurship, especially crucial, considering that almost half of millennials want to start their own business.
A prime motivation for millennials to move in the past year was job opportunities. The Memphis region’s slow recovery from the Great Recession – the economy has only recently returned to the pre-2007 levels – created an employment environment that did little to lure young adult workers, and the current lack of momentum in shaking off the nagging economic lethargy only exacerbates the issue.
The Memphis Brand
Over much of the past 15 years, we have had a faltering economy which was mirrored by a lack of improvement in talent. In 2002, the Talent Magnet Report pointed out the “obvious need for updated images, themes, and packaging to communicate the ‘real’ Memphis, the authentic Memphis, to talented young knowledge workers. In many cities there is a push on to integrate a city’s disparate parts into one cohesive branding approach. That’s the way powerful brands are built.
“But the Memphis brand is, at best, inconsistent as presented by various civic and business organizations. One could even make the case that Memphis is a brand that is ‘dead,’ if one considers how often images of the deceased are used. A concerted effort is needed to convey a much more powerful, compelling, consistent message for our city. In particular, the ways in which we choose to communicate must resonate with young knowledge workers. That means that the message, attitude, and style must be age appropriate.”
This branding need was finally addressed about 18 months ago with the hiring of David French, formerly interim president and CEO at the National Park Foundation, to lead the Memphis Branding Initiative, which has launched an ambitious program to spread the message about Memphis and its unique personality. There is the “We Are Memphis” website, but even more importantly, are the dozens of articles about Memphis being “pitched” to major national publications, so if you’ve been reading some interesting articles in unusual places, you’ve likely seen the work of the branding program.
Much has been written in recent months about the magnetism for millennials for mid-sized cities like Memphis. But if the past 15 years has proven anything, it is that simply basing our selling of Memphis on our own pride in it or by talking about the things that we believe make it special are not enough. The Memphis Branding Initiative is early in its work, but it has sustainable funding – although it could use more – and its results are being stringently evaluated for their impact. One measurement if its success in introducing Memphis to the younger workers that are needed if our region is to compete for new jobs and investments that could in time create the pressure for better wages.
No Reason We Can’t Do It
While economic development officials are for the first time in decades confronting the harsh realities of Memphis and Shelby County’s economy, strategies to keep and bring to Memphis the best and brightest has to be a top priority for any competitiveness agenda.
Most of all, we need to seriously and sincerely invite younger adults into hands-on opportunities to take part in the renewal and reimagination of Memphis. Any signs that the usual people are getting the usual important jobs and that special people get to have special privileges in setting policy ferments distrust and destroys rhetoric about the community’s commitment to real accessibility.
Right now, it is harder to think of a stronger talent and millennial strategy that to create an economic plan that produces dramatic growth, because absent that, our regional economy will remain on the bottom rungs of the economic rankings that matter. And so will our millennial population and creative workforce.
Other cities like Pittsburgh have proven that a city can turn itself around despite massive economic jolts and population loss. With its vein of entrepreneurship and creativity, there’s no reason Memphis can’t do it too.
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I have spent allot of time in Pittsburgh and have heard the turnaround story before and its quite a story. Instead of Nashville, Pittsburgh is the City that I have always thought that Memphis should look toward given its grit and grind flavor with the Steelers and there are allot of Steelers fans here in Memphis. Its proof turnarounds can happen. The thing about Pittsburgh, their last decline was brought about by an external competitive threat which caused the decline of the steel industry. What is concerning, is Memphis has had no such external threat or event which caused its decline. FedEx, for example, which we cant take this for granted that it wont happen, has not had an external threat to its market leadership and jobs here. The unexplained decline points to community leadership which in Memphis I call “The Memphis Tomorrow Effect” over the past 15 years. In my local professional pursuit I have been doing a local Memphis research project concerning the decline. I have kind of gone undercover as a small business like one goes undercover as a homeless person to conduct research. Let me tell you, tough road for small business in Memphis which goes to this accessibility thing you are talking about and I am from here !! I don’t like to compare Memphis and Nashville cause they are very different but in this case I will on a couple of fronts. Years ago I represented someone out of Memphis selling electrical supplies in Nashville with 2 good lines and broke right into the market. Then I worked for someone out of Nashville selling into Memphis with 10 good lines and it was pure hell breaking into the market although I finally got the job done. While folks here are hospitable, its very closed here to new things and ideas which is not good for the economy. Now 23 years later, with consulting services and ideas for needed workforce development, same thing is happening. Everybody is pretty nice but very closed here. Now my fav cities in TN are Memphis and Chattanooga and not Nashville where I lived quite a while which is completely different than Memphis. But as far as their attraction of creative talent, I believe that is all about the music business in Nashville which is why I was excited when I read that Evanoff article on the relaunch of the music business here. I dont know much about the music biz but I only have one idea which is a long shot. I wish someone would reach out to Robert Plant of Led Zeppelin my favorite band. I have a picture of him from the Internet with a UofM Tiger T-Shirt at the grave of Sonny Boy Williamson around here in Memphis. So Robert Plant definitely has an interest in Memphis and Memphis music. Its a long shot but worth a try. Anyway, Im continuing my professional pursuits here and my expensive side project of local research as an undercover small business trying to make it in Memphis with a few good ideas and its tough but rather interesting and conclusive – its a cultural thing. It leaves you scratching your head and asking But Why ?? when its not working…..
Important note: There is nothing “affordable” about the top 10 cities. They are expensive. And seven of the top 10 offer an extraordinary quality of life. What I “want” and what I act on are two different things. Pittsburgh is an interesting example where philanthropy made huge investments in quality of life and Carnegie Mellon is killing it in innovation, while U of Pittsburgh scoops up a major share of fed research dollars.
Joe B Kent is right about the Memphis business community being very closed. This is symptomatic of why we have ingrained leadership and few new ideas. Nobody seems sure what the Memphis brand really is. Trying to even partially reboot the music industry here will be extremely difficult, especially with Nashville just 200 miles away. We visited there recently for a concert at The Ryman and we were blown away by all that’s going on and still being built in downtown Nashville. Beale Street is tiny in comparison. Nashville totally owns its brand as Music City.
This morning the Wall Street Journal has a good graphic on where students go after they graduate from college. The results are different for what the local schools would claim but here are there results. The caption says “share of schools’ alumni who move to Memphis”
University of Memphis — 56.5%
Rhodes — 21.7%
TN/Martin — 17.9%
Ole Miss — 14.4%
Miss Valley — 13.8%
AR State — 9.1%
Miss State — 7.0%
Everyone else was smaller
Anonymous, The biggest problem is the closed culture here which goes to the top and Memphis Tomorrow. For years now, those in the community development complex, have found security in being nice and politically correct while community development “leaders” politely wait in line to ask for permission to go to the bathroom from the highly deficient Memphis Tomorrow. This as they ride the community development “merry go round” referenced recently in Smart City. It’s actually been very rewarding for those in the community development complex. One example of the “merry go round” occurred with the GMACW workforce initiative. They closed down the Chairman’s Circle Board because nothing was happening and then relaunched under EDGE and things remained stagnant closed to new ideas. Closed stagnation is the culture. No one knows anything else. The reason Memphis is not Nashville is because most cities are not a boom town which can be explained. But the reason that Memphis has systematically declined, with significant help from taxpayers, for unexplained reasons without an external event goes to top community leadership and in Memphis that is Memphis Tomorrow…..
I’m a millennial and Rhodes graduate. I’ve stayed here for 2 years and have found the lifestyle and employment opportunities in Memphis to be very sub par. Memphis is very backward. The majority of my friends have had similar experiences. Memphis has a lot of problems that clearly won’t be improving anytime soon. I’ll soon be relocating for a much better job. That position is in Nashville.
“While economic development officials are for the first time in decades confronting the harsh realities of Memphis and Shelby County’s economy, strategies to keep and bring to Memphis the best and brightest has to be a top priority for any competitiveness agenda.”
Form a task force of people of all backgrounds, to work with the “Memphis Tomorrow” leaders, that have a desire to actually live, work and play WITHIN the City. High school students, college students, working professionals, artists. Quit listening to consultants. Read and execute on the public input studies. Evaluate lists like the one posted in this article. Look for emerging trends.
IMHO, The Fairgrounds re-development plan is our current case study of largely ignoring public input.
Here’s what I know: If we do a “nationwide search” for any local job opening amazingly we always hire a local. We are inbred ;people don’t move here because of the good ole boy network that runs things. People here are opposed to outside ideas. We’re still unable to pass a LGBT anti-discrimination law in 2018. We had some silly non-merit language law adopted. If a new restaurant from out of town opens people will say on social media to not go because it’s not local. We still have not updated the city logo that features riverboats and cotton. Young people are not drawn to a Mark Twain lifestyle.
Aaron, Your thinking is good and on target. I would encourage you to make public comment at City Council and County Commission. The good news is that some leaders are opening up to new ideas. At the same time, not sure that you are referring to the same Memphis Tomorrow that I am. Memphis Tomorrow is a Community Development organization in Memphis that is made up of top business leaders that has been around for about 18 years. Its creation largely correlates with the decline of Memphis while also per your post being the key people that have chosen Not to confront the harsh realities of the Memphis Economy. Memphis Tomorrow has had every opportunity to follow your advice and has consistently chosen Not to do so. Nor have they shown the ability to effectively course correct when provided the data or even serve the overall business community . If a real research group came to Memphis and conducted credible research, I believe the following would be the entire content of their report: “The problem in Memphis is community leadership and primarily the organization of Memphis Tomorrow. The solution to the problem is closing down Memphis Tomorrow and administering leadership development to transform the community development culture. The End” I’ve done work all over the country and no place is perfect. But top community leadership in Memphis Tomorrow is the worst that I have seen anywhere because it appears to have become a cultural norm in that the highly educated in Memphis are unaware of how bad community leadership has become compared to other cities. This is not normal. To get an idea of the cost of deficient community leadership in Memphis, please visit my website at http://mcclmeasured.net/data. If you have questions let me know. But your thinking corresponds with mine. Keep up the fight !!
Smart City Memphis, How can we allow the Memphis College of Art to disappear if we are serious about building a creative community?
Memphis is well known as one of the worst cities in the country for LGBT people.
And we read today in the Memphis Business Journal that American Steamboat Co. is moving its headquarters from Memphis. Another very troubling sign about the decline of this city.
Steve: From what I have read, MCA had been sinking for a long time. I don’t think it would be wise to try and resuscitate a struggling organization. Declining college enrollment is a significant problem for small college across the U.S.
Joe B Kent: Your website is a much needed presence for helping keep our leaders accountable using real data. Keep up the great work!