This post is written by Jimmie Covington, veteran Memphis reporter with lengthy experience covering governmental, school, and demographic issues. He is a contributing writer with The Best Times, a monthly news magazine for active people 50 and older, where this appears in the April issue.
By Jimmie Covington
Shelby County as a whole has lost population for the fourth year in a row, according to 2016 county estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in late March.
The numbers, which reflect estimates for last July 1, also show that more people are continuing to move out of the entire nine-county Memphis metro area than are moving into the area.
Although 2016 city and town estimates have not yet been released, the Shelby County estimate, 934,603, a drop of 1,528 from 2015, indicates a continued loss of population in Memphis.
For many years, census numbers have been showing a major outward movement of residents from Memphis while the suburban Shelby County cities and towns and the county’s unincorporated area have had strong growth.
Basically, all of Shelby County’s decline has been in Memphis and that pattern is likely to be repeated this year.
Shelby County reached a high population of 938,965 in 2012, the latest estimates report shows.
The major growth in the metro area has been centered in Shelby County outside Memphis and in DeSoto County.
Numbers for Shelby County outside Memphis won’t be available until city and town estimates are released in a few weeks, but the 2016 county figures show DeSoto County increased 2,399—from 173,212 in 2015 to 175,611 in 2016.
The nine-county Memphis metro area increased 888 over the year—from 1,341,954 to 1,342,842—as a result of births exceeding deaths. However, the area had a net out-migration to other places in the country totaling 6,502.
In contrast, the 12-county Nashville metro area had a population gain of 36,337 over the year, including a net in-migration from elsewhere in the United States of 20,769.
The Nashville metro area had an estimated population of 1,865,298 last July 1.
People should use some caution in considering the estimate numbers. They are based on birth-death figures, past trends and other information and are not actual counts of residents. They could be significantly off the mark.
However, people familiar with census numbers say the estimates are pretty good at reflecting trends.
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This article is very disturbing. We’ve known for years about the exodus of people from the city of Memphis, but when the entire nine-county region has a basically flat to declining population growth, then it’s a real sign that things are not good. We all know of the many problems in the city of Memphis, but what are the factors that are responsible for this trend across our entire region?
Interesting related piece by Ted Evanoff in the CA this weekend about how Memphis has missed out on the manufacturing boom. Seems like most all of Tennessee’s manufacturing growth has gone to Nashville and Middle
TN., especially automobile related companies like Nissan, GM, Bridgestone, Hanook Tire along with Google and Amazon. I would have expected the distribution and warehousing in Memphis area to have been a stronger draw here.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/2017/04/01/ted-evanoff-memphis-has-missed-manufacturing-boom/99870948/
3 words: ‘drug screening required’, on job postings…
3 words: ‘drug screening required’, on job postings…
I never thought of that part. The lack of highly educated, skilled workers hurts. The best go elsewhere. know it’s hard to get people to relocate here.
Like Jackson and Tupelo Mississippi are intellectual juggernauts. Tennessee just won’t match state incentives like Mississippi will, especially if the plant is going to west Tennessee. You put an auto plant here, people will relocate in a heartbeat.
These population stats also explain why the airport is still struggling to add passenger service. With a stagnant population base, we are unlikely to ever add more to the 80 flights per day that now operate at MEM.
Is a smaller population going to be the future here in the Memphis area? Is there anything that can or will happen to reverse this trend? Has this happened to other places? Ideas? Thoughts?
It is always hard to make much out of population numbers. But the problems that Memphis faces are decades old. Net in-migration has always been low. Our slow growth has been a result of births over deaths — that means we have to raise and educate our new workers — an extra expense to the problem of regional growth.
I decided to look at labor data for the past two years — January 2015 to January 2017. Memphis MSA lags Nashville MSA in number of jobs: 626,730 to 985,460. Over those two years, jobs in Memphis MSA have grown by 3.2%, while the number of workers has grown by only 2.4%. The City has grown by a smaller number of workers, probably reflecting the move to suburbs and the lack of in-migration of new workers.
One positive note is that City of Nashville has a smaller percentage of the MSA work force (38.8%) than City of Memphis (46.6%).
Nashville and most of middle Tennessee are in the midst of an epic growth and development boom. I have never seen as many construction cranes across the skyline of an entire city.
I would have thought the rallying cry of “brilliant at the basics” would make people want to flood in – don’t people see our leaders as the visionaries they are…..
LOL … I had forgotten about our mayor’s “brilliant at the basics” mantra to amplify the assets of Memphis. He also pledged “new eyes to solve old problems”. Sorry Jim, doesn’t look like you are doing so well.
After spending time in Nashville and Atlanta, I am convinced that Memphis has a case to attract people and jobs, but a different element. Perhaps a message different from those two which seem to never stop growing but have become increasingly congested and expensive to live in. We should stress the easier life in the smaller River City.
This is a comment I made on an editorial that is posted on the Memphis Flyer’s web site about the latest census report. I think it includes information that fits in here as well:
The key statement in the editorial is that “the dominant economy of Memphis, focused on our much-vaunted status as a distribution center, is not one that generates appreciable numbers of either high incomes or skilled jobs.” Detailed figures in this latest census estimates report appear to support that statement. Two components bring about population change in an area–births compared to deaths and the net gain or loss for the area from people moving into an area compared to those moving away. Census officials refer to this second component as migration. The figures that should be of major concern to leaders of the area are those that show that several thousand more people are leaving the the entire nine-county Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area each year than are moving in. I think a reasonable assumption is that many of these people who are leaving are skilled people who are doing so for higher paying jobs elsewhere in the country. The estimates report reflects that the nine-county Memphis area had a net loss of 6,502 to domestic (within the United States) migration from July 1, 2015, to July 1, 2016, and that the net loss has been 36,854 since April 1, 2010. These are really big numbers which primarily reflect the losses within the city of Memphis itself.
They are somewhat offset by a net gain from international migration–1,404 from 2015 to 2016 and 8,729 from 2010 to 2016. It is obvious that births exceeding deaths are keeping the entire area from losing population. The report shows that the entire area had 6,405 more births than deaths from July 1, 2015, to July 1,2016, and 46,840 since 2010. Taken together these figures produce the area’s 888 population gain from 2015 to 2016 and an 18,018 gain since 2010. Just reporting that the area’s population has increased 888 over a year’s time may leave an impression that not much is happening with the population. But that figure is a product of thousands of people moving away and fewer thousands of people moving in plus other thousands of people being born and fewer thousands of people dying. jcov40