It’s hard to find much positive news for Memphis and Shelby County in the results from the 2010 Census, a review of the data shows.
Consider these statistics:
–Shelby County had the lowest population increase during a decade since the 1870s when yellow fever ravaged the area.
The 1870s gain was 2,053. The increase from 2000 to 2010 was 30,172. The 31,777 increase from 1910 to 1920 had been the lowest since the 1870s.
–The 1970 Census was the last federal decennial census to indicate that more people were moving into Shelby County than moving away.
–Birth-death figures and census results also indicate that Memphis and Shelby County had net migration loss of 66,112 white residents between 2000 and 2010 and that more than half the loss were people who left the eight-county
Memphis metro area entirely.
–The metro area growth figures are weak when compared with those of the 13-county Nashville metro area.
The Memphis area’s population growth was 110,896, or 9.2 percent, while the Nashville area’s was 278,160, or 21.2 percent.
Total population in the Nashville metro area rose from 1,311,774 to 1,589,934. The Memphis area increased from 1,205,204 to 1,316,100.
Shelby County continued to have the state’s highest population with 927,644 residents compared to Davidson’s 626,881.
Also, the Nashville part of Davidson County with 601,222 residents still trails Memphis’ 646,889.
The determination of which counties are included in a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is based on standards set by the federal Office of Management and Budget. Criteria include such things as travel between outlying counties and the central city, employment patterns, other business activities and cultural and other ties.
In the Nashville area, a majority of the 278,160 growth–178,068–came from more people moving into the area than moving away, which is a sign of strong economic growth. The remainder of the increase, 100,091, was the “natural increase” from births exceeding deaths in the 13 counties.
In contrast, the Memphis metro area growth consisted of 92,415 more births than deaths and only 18,481 from more people moving in than moving away.
Calculations using census and birth-death numbers show an area’s gain or loss to movement of people, which, in census terms, is called migration.
While Shelby County had a net out-migration loss of 66,112 white residents, the metro area’s seven other counties had a net in-migration gain of only 29,085 white residents, indicating that 37,027 white residents had left the metro area.
Steve Redding, a researcher and director of the Regional Economic Development Center at the University of Memphis , said that since the numbers are calculated net migration numbers, it can’t be said with “mathematical certainty” that 37,027 left.
“However, it does appear that many did leave the area and did not just move to an adjoining county,” he said. The center closed June 30 due to a lack of funding.
The census and birth-death calculations also show that Shelby County and the metro area as a whole had a net in-migration gain from the movement of African American and other minority residents.
On the overall low growth and outward movement of residents from Shelby County, Redding cited the growing popularity of adjoining counties and the low growth rate of the metro area economy for several years.
“The slower rate of job growth has not provided a substantial replacement population for Shelby County,” he said.
Redding said the census and other numbers show there is definitely a movement of African Americans and other minority residents to the suburbs in the Memphis area.
“For instance, the minority student population of Shelby County Schools doubled from 24 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2010,” he said.
He said statistics show that similar movement is occurring in many other American cities.
“We are increasingly seeing that middle and working class African American households are making residential location decisions based not on historical patterns of neighborhood segregation, but rather on other selection criteria–proximity to jobs, schools, housing and neighborhood amenities, etc.”
Recent happenings have made Redding optimistic about Memphis’ regaining population.
“The rising popularity of neighborhoods in downtown, midtown and elsewhere, the transformation of public housing into choice mixed income neighborhoods, new and proposed greenways and other quality of life enhancements and our recent job growth prospects can all substantially help curb out-migration by all racial groups,” he said.
However, suburban leaders in Shelby County say they believe the approval by Memphis school board members and Memphis voters of surrender of the city schools’ charter in a move to consolidate with county schools will result in more movement away from Shelby County.
And demographers say that long-standing migration trends are not easily changed.
Dr. Louis Pol, a demographer and business college dean at the University of Nebraska Omaha, says momentum appears to have developed in the migration of people out of Memphis.
The statistics reflect that the outflow of people from Memphis reached an all-time high in the last decade.
Only time will tell what the impact of current initiatives and controversies will be.
Memphis metro area population change 2000-2010
Counties 2000 Births Deaths Net Migration 2010
Shelby 897,472 +146,081 -77,129 -38,780 927,644
Fayette 29,348 +4,502 -3,086 +9,394 40,158
Tipton 50,729 +7,520 -4,838 +5,925 59,336
Crittenden 50,866 +8,941 -4,916 -3,989 50,902
DeSoto 107,199 +20,148 -8,896 +42,801 161,252
Tate 25,370 +3,937 -2,519 +2,098 28,886
Tunica 9,227 +2,090 -1,033 +494 10,778
Marshall 34,993 +5,219 -3,606 +538 37,144
Total 1,205,204 +198,438 -106,023 +18,481 1,316,100
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and State Vital Statistics Records.
the guy gets the point, the MOMENTUM for the area is so obviously outbound of Memphis, and continues to be clear as the nose upon your face, unless you have it stuck in the MIssissippi mud..
went the advent of a new perimeter highway, the momentum might be sustained for the near and far future – you can also see the explosion of births for example in DeSoto County freekin MISSISSIPPI- in another ten years to fiftenn years these people are going to grow up and probably have families that also will not live in the City of Memphis proper…it’s not happening
The City of Memphis will become less and less a ‘city limits destination’ given the choices now that are available, and will be available in the future…unless The City of Memphis will engage in more unwanted annexation.
I’m not sure whether attempting to “stop outbound migration” , or thwart it (because some eggheads just don’t like outside growth), is a very smart thing to pursue anyway…heck, the train has left the station a long time ago.
“I’m not sure whether attempting to “stop outbound migration” , or thwart it is a very smart thing to pursue anyway…”
Care to support your stance?
“I’m not sure whether attempting to “stop outbound migration” , or thwart it , is a very smart thing to pursue anyway”
Yes, because after all, a declining tax base is such a positive thing….
At least if we can’t stop the outbound migration, we shouldn’t have to subsidize their decision. Let people contributing to sprawl impact fees to cover the infrastructure needed for them. Most of Shelby County cities have long ago paid for its infrastructure, but now their citizens have to pay for new infrastructure that lures people out of their cities.
outbound migration isn’t paid by The City of Memphis now, there is no reason to believe that The City Of Memphis will pay for future outbound migration either..
The City of Memphis isn’t in a “position” to halt it either. The City of Memphis can’t do a damn thing to stem the interest and growth of other municipalities such as Germantown, Collierville, Arlington, Bartlett, Olive Branch, Hernando, or even smaller towns like Fisherville, Lakeland etc.
I don’t recall any movement of people who are residents of Collierville or Germantown or Bartlett or Arlington requesting any “subsidy” from The City of Memphis.
The resources for the County of Shelby do not “belong” only to the City of Memphis TN..and the residents of other surrounding counties in an entirely different State don’t give a damn, neither do the other residents of counties outside the County of Shelby.
Tax bases “migrate” all the time..some gain, some lose…some states lose and adjacent states gain..that happens all the time as well…like Kansas City, or the surrounding area of Cinncinati, or DC/Maryland/NOVA, or even a Texarkana…lol
There will continue to be losers and winners..sometimes every city can’t win all the time, or forever..there are too many competing interests to remain stagnant over time…populations shift and the evidence seems fairly clear to me..the momentum seems steady enough to sustain outbound migration for a very very long time.
If The City of Memphis were “that” attractive to populations in the area, the momentum would be in their favor. No such thing is happening, or has happened for decades. If The City of Memphis were even “perceived” as the “place to live” in peace and prosperity, there would be far more indisputable evidence of such an alleged “positive” and shift
“I don’t recall any movement of people who are residents of Collierville or Germantown or Bartlett or Arlington requesting any “subsidy” from The City of Memphis.”
The people who got rich developing those areas requested and received subsidies from the existing taxpayers, through the County Commission of Shelby County, yep, they sure as hell did.
Anon- you are basing your opinion on a lack of knowledge where taxation across the entire county and its impact on infrastructure construction and maintenance is concerned. It makes it difficult to identify a starting point in this conversation.
We would essentially need to start at the beginning. It would be much more simple if you would do the research on your own time and come back once you understand basic principles such as 7 out of 10 Shelby”ians” are also Memphians (you seem to draw a distinction) and maybe research the manner by which certain roadways, schools and utilities have been built, expanded and financed across the county and region. Identify where the vast majority of Shelby County’s funding is derived from. (Hint: It is not outside the city limits of Memphis). Identify where the financing originated to build certain regional “institutions” such as MEM and the Med which certain communities have made no financial contribution towards yet are more than happy to reap the financial and quality of life rewards.
On a more broad note, you such a stance shows a total lack of awareness of the resources consumed simply to move an existing population about for no other reason than to pave existing fields. Also to note is the vast acreages of quality agricultural land that are rendered useless indefinitely by such actions.
No, I think you are simply playing devil’s advocate as no one is that self centered or unknowing of the world.
The “world” of The City of Memphis seems to be in denial.
The real world is that The City of Memphis will continue to experience the “momentum” of outbound migration. Forget issues of past financings and other tangential issues.
The true issue is that PEOPLE are MOVING..and they have been MOVING outside The City of Memphis for decades. Importantly, it’s crazy to deny that fact. It’s also naive (and crazy) to believe these same people are going to forsake their choices of outbound migration, in favor of The City of Memphis City Limits. That has not happened. That’s NOT going to happen given the plain momentum to the contrary. That’s quite a silly hard sell to set forth that kind of prdiction (based on the trend).
additionally, other cities and towns are competing for tax dollars as well, and not sitting idly by to receive “permission” from The City of Memphis to do a damn thing. That should be abundantly clear…socially, politically, and economically.
The economic divide will insure that will continue to exist as a reality. The area is prime for more economic and social bifurcation. The foundation of this was set a very long time ago.
The locus of financings will also shift…just like populations do, all the time. The locus of financings did not help Detroit, and its exodus from The City of Detroit.
Some people don’t want to live in The City of Detroit. Some people choose not to live in The City of Memphis. It’s about making choices, not having choices made for them, or limiting residents choices of where to live in any region.
Lots of people already don’t live in The City of Memphis, and would have no ral interest to do so..so what ? Some others actively want to live in The City of Memphis, thinking it’s an urban oasis…fine…it’s their own choices.
The choice for thousands of area residents is to reside in areas such as Bartlett, Olive Branch MISSISSIPPI, Germantown, Collierville, Arlington, Lakeland, Eads, Millington, Fisherville, Hernando, Oakland and I dare say even more in the future in such places as Piperton, Rossville..and maybe Somerville. It’s about choice, it’s about lifestyle, it’s about perception, it’s about pursuit of an individual’s own happiness and freedom…and that’s a very good thing…not something to fear or distrust.
The train left the station a very long time ago, and it’s not going to back up to pick up stragglers. it doesn’t ever work that way in a southern city with Memphis’ history, character, and culture
“It’s also naive (and crazy) to believe these same people are going to forsake their choices of outbound migration, in favor of The City of Memphis City Limits”.
Let me stop you right there. My wife and I have done just that. We were raised in the ‘burbs and chose to live in the city to be close to the amenities we enjoy. In fact, of all of our friends, only one individual and one other couple live outside the city limits. The one couple lives in Collierville simply because they arrived here from Milwaukee and it was the best apartment they could find given one day’s worth of exploration near the husband’s future employer. They are now actively looking for a home in East Memphis and Midtown.
As for choice, no one here has suggested that individuals should not have such freedom to live where they please. The issue you continue to avoid is the method by which the infrastructure and support is provided to make it possible to live in these new areas. If these individuals actually paid for their choices, you might see different choices being made. Your are not advocating freedom. True freedom is being provided the opportunity to make a choice while being both aware and responsible for the associated consequences of said choice. I know responsibility is a difficult pill for some to swallow but without including it in the decision making process, individuals are living out the life of a spoiled child.
Good luck getting an intellectually honest response to that issue from our friendly Marine imposter.
Many people, including many elected officials, may not realize how far the Memphis metro area trails Nashville and many other areas in population growth from in-movers. The statistics show that the eight-county Memphis metro area had a net in-migration gain of 18,481 residents in the last decade. The Nashville area’s suburban Wilson County, which ranked fourth among that areas’s counties in growth from in-movers, had a net in-migration gain of 19,645.
As with the Memphis area, most of the Nashville area’s growth was in suburban counties. Unlike Shelby County, Davidson County did not have a migration loss. However, the figures indicate that all or virtually all of Davidson’s net in-migration of 12,808 people can be attributed to Hispanic residents moving into the county.
Here are the population increase statistics for the Nashville metro area:
Nashville metro area population change 2000-2010
Counties 2000 Births Deaths Net Migration 2010
Cannon 12,821 +1,496 -1,403 +887 13,801
Cheatham 35,912 +4,861 -2.890 +1,222 39,105
Davidson 569,891 +93,677 -49,695 +12,808 626,681
Dickson 43,146 +6,516 -4,297 +4,301 49,666
Hickman 22,295 +2,783 -2,329 +1,941 24,690
Macon 20,386 +2,822 -2,270 +1,310 22,248
Robertson 54,443 +9,639 -5,299 +7,510 66,283
Rutherford 182,023 +34,117 -12,702 +59,166 262,604
Smith 17,712 +2,230 -2034 +1,258 19,166
Sumner 130,449 +19,236 -11,582 +22,515 160,645
Trousdale 7,259 +918 -895 +588 7,870
Williamson 126,638 +19,445 -7,819 +44,918 183,182
Wilson 88,809 +13,145 -7,606 +19,645 113,993
Total area 1,311,774 +210,912 -110,821 +178,069 1,589,934
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and State Vital Statistics Records.
Packrat: We made the point that it’s the residents of the cities in Shelby County who have subsidized sprawl, but that said, for decades, county government kept these cities tax rates low by paying for the highways. Over time, county government paid for them 50-50, then 75-25, and finally, it had to quit because of budget pressures.
At the same time, county government refused to apply the same policy to Memphis that it did to the other smaller cities.
Anonymous: We are hard-pressed to figure out how you think Memphians don’t pay for the infrastructure for suburban sprawl.
jcov40-
You went through a lot of trouble to post those statistics. Now would you please elaborate regarding their relevance to the conversation?
It’s hard to conceive of The City of Memphis paying for infrastructure in The City of Germantown, or infrastructure in Fayette County, TN, or in The stupid state of Mississippi….that does not happen…lol
Federal dollars for dedicated Mmephis roads for instance, don’t get used in developing infrastructure in the fastest growing suburb in the nation, Olive Branch ( a sovereign suburb of The City of Memphis)
Revenue bonds issued sovereign authorities outside Shelby county don’t get paid for by The City of Memphis.
Any future General Obligation bonds, irbs,or revenues that may be issued for infrastructure (e.g. sewer, tranportation, school, hospital, etc) in outlying cities.towns, etc outside of Shelby County are not paid back by The City of Memphis…and will never be.
If there continues to be an exodus or outbound migration to various other counties, their ad valorem taxes will obviously increase dramaticially. The same could be said about business taxes, fees (auto, licenses), use taxes, fuel taxes, sales taxes etc.
The tax base or available tax base is not, and will not be “glued” to the City of Memphis, or even Shelby County..,where people choose to live is the key to available resources to fund all sorts of things. If the population trends “outbound”, they will take their taxes and purchasing power with them (for the most part).
If enough people are attracted to those totally new, “outbound” communities now, or in the near future, The City of Memphis might, in fact, struggle to say the least. People are going to be free to make their own choices of where they want to live and prosper…they always do…that’s America.
The City of Memphis shall find itself competing for the tax base, or, taxing the hell out of what they already have. Crumbling infrastructure will ensue it seems.
The City of Memphis, by far, is not some irresistable “magnet” whether “locally” (witness Olive Branch MS), regionally, or nationally.
The uproar when Cordova was annexed by The City of Memphis was about as viscerally negative as I have ever witnessed. People didn’t move to Cordova to live once again in The City of Memphis. That sentiment, even today, is still expressed by an overwhelming majority of the flow of initial residents. Many residents are still pissed off….why ? it’s the mere truth that they did not to LIVE in the City of Memphis anymore, and pay huge tax increases, and be labeled or shackled with the negative mantra already firmly established by crime statistics, racism, poor schools, demagogues, and corruption. Many of these same residents now feel “stuck”, but still want “out”…..just ask ’em. Many know better than now to move and live in an “annexable” unicorporated area of Shelby County (that is “reserved” by The City of Memphis). The problem is now, many residents of “MemphisCordova” can’t sell their homes. Heck, even north Germantown Parkway smacks of the heyday/demise of Hickory Hill….and everybody sorta acknowledges that when pressed…but they too don’t want to participate in a self-fullfilling prophesy…just drive up and down Gtown Parkway…go to the Super Target…oih vey ! and go to the now-awful Mall. Unless residents are blind, it’s easy to predict that future.
Gtown Parkway is a textbook example of how not to build suburbs/shopping/ingress/egress. The planners were morons…so were the developers and builders.
Change is constant. The City of Memphis will not remain the same. The outlying areas of all stripes will not be immobilized or stay the same either.
The City of Memphis will invaribaly do another ‘land grab’….you can bet money on that. The results will be just as negative as the Cordova land grab…but many of the newer residents, tranplants, real estate agents, and builders might not be that dumb next time.
Go to the official records and see for yourself who’s buying land in which county….really.
“It’s hard to conceive of The City of Memphis paying for infrastructure in The City of Germantown…….that does not happen…lol”.
I am sorry anon, I did not even bother to read the rest of your little rant. The fact that you got such a simple fact flay out wrong in the first “sentence” of your post indicates the rest of your opinion will be equally uninformed. I suggest you increase your knowledge in regards to the financing of infrastructure projects in Shelby County.
Given the figures that show the Memphis metro area is lagging behind many other metro areas in economic and population growth and the outflow of people from Shelby County overall is steadily growing, just how important is the issue of who is subsidizing whom within Shelby County in dealing with the metro area’s economic growth problems?
This group of politicians may believe this and that group of politicians may believe that (or at least say they believe this or that) but in the end are any major problems going to be resolved that would significantly enhance economic growth?
I sure don’t have any answers.
“If enough people are attracted to those totally new, “outbound” communities now, or in the near future, The City of Memphis might, in fact, struggle to say the least. People are going to be free to make their own choices of where they want to live and prosper…they always do…that’s America”
Thanks, Captain Obvious. The discussion going on is how to address the problems of not only the city of Memphis, but the region of Memphis, of which the outlying communities and suburbs are not immune. If you’d like to be something other than a boring troll, then by all means have at it.
“…just how important is the issue of who is subsidizing whom within Shelby County in dealing with the metro area’s economic growth problems?”
It is important if not simply because as a region, we are hardly flush with tax revenues and to squander what little we have in such a manner is criminal. These same resources that are being used to build additional infrastructure (that must then be maintained) would be much better spent training our workforce and rehabilitating existing industrial areas (where the support infrastructure already exists) to accommodate new or expanding employers. It is exactly because the Memphis metro is not experiencing a large increase in population that who is subsidizing whom, not only in Shelby County but in the region, is so important.
If one thinks this issue does not impact suburban counties then I suggest a reexamination of the situation. Stateline Road in Southaven is still in need of a serious infusion of financial support and mature infrastructure work in order to stabilize that section of Southaven. Instead of focusing limited infrastructure and financial resources on stabilization, Southaven instead is pouring money into new roads, sewers and support services for newer areas. As a county, residents of Hernando see at least some of the tax revenue generated within their community go towards projects such as the expansion of Church Road. Meanwhile the neighborhoods closest- and thus most important- to the health of the courthouse square are in serious need of pavement work and lack basic infrastructure such as sidewalks and street lights. Existing communities and citizens who in some cases have been paying taxes to the local government for decades lack the simple improvements that are being afforded to new and future residents. We are literally robbing Peter to pay Paul.
watch…people are going to continue to EXIT
that’s an easy one to see coming !! stop pretending..lol
Poor anon-
They are stuggling to keep up with the conversation.