By John Lawrence:
A legacy of agriculture and distribution has left this region home to a low-skill workforce engaged in mostly repetitive, non-innovative jobs. The Memphis MSA ranks 83 out of 100 on the Brookings Skills Gap Index. Despite a largely low-skill job market, average worker skills do not align. And, the region ranks 91st out of 100-largest metros in high-tech industry employment.
Long term solutions are wide ranging and complicated. However, logical starting points exist.
We need a network capable of anticipating future employer needs. We must purposefully connect industry to educators and training facilities. We can increase career readiness and basic skills programs, and we can strive for an integrated No-Wrong-Door system with a career pathway of sequenced coursework and credentialing.
Immediate Opportunity
According to a jobs analysis performed by the Greater Memphis Chamber and Workforce Investment Network, Memphis-area manufacturers plan to hire more than 4,000 employees prior to 2016.
These jobs and skills are consistent with ongoing needs from the following regional industries:
- Biomedical Device
- Chemical Manufacturing
- Consumer Goods
- Clothing Manufacturers
- Food Manufacturers
- Heavy and Light Metal Fabricators
- Paper Product Manufacturers
The top five expanding industries in the United States by space usage according to the NAIOP Research Foundation are: fabricated metal product manufacturing, plastics and rubber product manufacturing, wood product manufacturing, nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing and furniture product manufacturing.
Career Readiness Certification aims to support skill development and enable workplace entry for the lowest-skilled workers. A regional workforce analysis and labor market assessment produced by Younger Associates found that 100% of regional employers with certified employees found value in the Career Readiness Certification program and 75% thought their employees were better prepared than others.
Ongoing Problem
Despite there being three unemployed workers for every job posted, major employers still have difficulty filling positions with qualified candidates.
In the Younger report, 95% of those surveyed had never hired anyone with a Career Readiness Certification and 57% of prospective workers surveyed were not aware of the program.
In the Made in Memphis Manufacturing Industry Survey of 2013, respondents reported few effective job-announcement strategies. Few employers reported working with educational institutions to recruit employees. Employers interviewed suggested that they go to great lengths to qualify employees, using online hiring assessments and extensive orientation programs, continual in-house training on company policies and union-backed metrics. Workforce development professionals and educators were also interviewed and offered that employees are often unaware of career pathways available and the value of education to job advancement.
Finally, there appears to be no mechanism to regularly anticipate employer hiring needs without periodically ramping up a special market study.
Looking To The Future
The consulting firm McKinsey and Company published an extensive study of global manufacturing in 2012, titled “Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation.” Using an adjusted industry analysis, Brookings suggests Greater Memphis specializes in three of their five broad manufacturing segments: global technologies, regional processing, and resource-intensive tradable commodities.
Resource intensive tradable commodities include the products and markets that Memphis has had historical trading and production advantages. Regional processing includes production of goods that must be produced close to their final market due to their difficulty or expense to transport. Global technologies include computers and precision equipment, including medical devices, in which Memphis has renowned advantages.
Address Today’s Need & Build Tomorrow’s Model
Today, promising workforce training programs exist but are not being accessed by enough employers or prospective employees. Demand from existing and incoming manufacturers is unmet by the current low-skilled workforce. Advanced and emerging industries like bio-tech, metal fabrication and commodities processing require even higher skills.
The market must capitalize on the large, available workforce by aggressively preparing them to enter the new manufacturing economy. Memphis is already moving toward a higher-skill market with the opening of new advanced manufacturing plants. If this trend is to continue, a skilled workforce that understands the value of advanced manufacturing positions is critical.
Whether we are talking about a Workforce Employer Collaborative or Sector Specific Apprenticeship Programs, the time for movement on an Industry-Driven Workforce Development Initiative is now.
The Series:
Part One: Creating a Process on Economic Development
Part Two: Securing the Global Logistics Brand
Part Three: Diversifying the Economy Beyond Logistics
Part Four: Leveraging Assets for International Trade
Part Six: Organizing for Innovative Entrepreneurial Growth – Monday (10/7/13)
Part Seven: Connecting Jobs, Workers, Institutions & Activity Centers – Wednesday (10/9/13)
Part Eight: Tracking the Market to Understand Emerging Opportunities – Monday (10/14/13)
Part Nine: Prioritizing First-Step Initiatives – Wednesday — (10/16/13)
While being able to support and claim Memphis as home to a well-trained and eager workforce would no doubt aid in the area’s economic development, as in many of the other sections mentioned thus far, we will still face a fundamental chicken-egg scenario. Workers with these skillsets would be valued both in Memphis and nationally including many peer cities. It is hard to imagine many of these individuals remaining in the Memphis region when their skill and training is likely to fetch equal or greater pay for an employer in another city or region just as we have seen with the local and regional exodus of college educated individuals. One of our greatest exports at present are educated individuals and trained professionals. That pool will eventually shallow out as the numbers decreases to align with annual graduation rates, but at present it is a noteworthy outward migration.
Not to say that we should avoid the task. An uneducated and unskilled labor force keeps us on the quick path to nowhere.
While economic development is crucial for the survival of the metropolitan area and the region, it will not in and of itself result in a thriving metropolis. Memphis must become a place where existing residents want to remain when they could just as easily move elsewhere and where those from outside this area choose to relocate because they want to be here. Of course, I realize such a goal and the initiatives required to achieve such results extend beyond the topics of this series.
UN: your points are well taken and reflect many of the debates underway with this plan right now.
There are a lot of smart, involved people helping us work through this one (human capital). 60% + of projected job openings in our market will be low skill, not even requiring a HS diploma. These aren’t the jobs we are targeting in traded sectors, innovation or production. 20%+ will likely be high skill requiring a bachelor’s or better. These are the most mobile (both exiting and attracting in) and take the longest to create.
While many on our team are very involved with K12 and others are in 4year universities, we are really gravitating to a focus on vocational certification to Associate’s for mid-skill opportunities. This is projected to be about 17% of future jobs. These are likely to be in manufacturing and provide upward mobility with an education/career path. We think this could be our sweet spot for linking industry to a workforce that could be developed from and stay in the region.
But there are many other issues. Transportation, employment concentrations, connectivity, etc.
But when it comes to connecting workforce to new economy jobs and aligning skills, we may be able to make pretty impressive strides starting in the mid-skill to lower mid-skill range.
As this blog has pointed out often, it’s college degrees that make cities more competitive in today’s economy. Vocational jobs are good but they don’t move us up the ladder to be listed with cities who are doing things right. It feels like we’re more and more content with being in the bottom ratings and this plan isn’t likely to do enough to change that low rating if it’s spending its energy and time on low and mid-low skill jobs. We can’t keep paying for factories and giving away taxes for these jobs and think that we’re not also deciding that we’re not really trying to compete. Let’s all be honest – we’re making the decisions that will put Memphis in the same category with Toledo. If that’s what people want, fine, but a lot of us need to go to a city with big ambitions.
A) not all advanced economies rely on advanced degrees. There are Eurpean cities that depend on the auto industry and technical skills. There are US cities that depend on pharma or computer assembly with associate level skills. There are emerging nations that appear perfect built on natural resource extraction… not a high skill job.
B) high-skill levels lead the economy where high skill levels exist… Usually related to high skill producing universities. In highly inovative areas (of which we are barely competitive with a few exceptions). Or in large global service sector economies. Or…
C) high-skill service jobs support the markets built by production workers and high skill innovation jobs lead or are attracted to markets that have roots in production of related products. No need for doctors, lawyers and accountants if there is no one around to pay them. No need for scientists, marketing firms or investment bankers if there is no real company building or production activity.
D) we are a national leader in people who start college but drop out after one year. If we can help those people move just a little farther to an associate’s degree and into a production (and in some cases innovation) position, we can take a monstrous leap. We can also set the stage for becoming a much more high skilled market in the future.
E) This is extremely ambitious. I think there are many places we should all see ourselves in an economic plan. If any of what we have covered to this point is successful, we will create opportunities for innovation & entrepreneurship, new and emerging industries that position Memphis as a leader, for neighborhood revitalization as skills/pay/population increases… And other thi vs we’ll cover next week.
D) if ANYONE has a real suggestion that is more specific than we need to be richer, smarter and cooler… Please share.
It just worries me that you seem to spend a lot of time telling us why it’s good to be a city with low skills. I don’t think you understand the negative impact it has on many of us who are really trying to decide if we stay here or move to a city where young professionals are really valued in word and deed. It feels like Memphis is in a self-reenforcing loop. As Urbanut asked earlier, what do we say to someone who’s thinking about moving to Nashville that tells them there is a future here for them?
As for B, what is the plan to build economic competitiveness around U of M? It generally gets little attention in discussions about the future of Memphis.
Maybe lots of us who have options are just tired of waiting, waiting, waiting.
I don’t think you are going to find much disagreement here or anywhere. The challenge is starting. We could have a feel good campaign that markets us to young professionals (those rarely work), we could roll out the red carpet for the sexy jobs to relocate (we do on occasion but competition is fierce) or we could start by doing more with what and who we have.
Given the dynamics of this market, what new companies SHOULD be here? Given the dynamics of this market, what could you (generally, anyone) start?
I spent Thursday night with economic developers from three of the cities Memphians love to leap to. They were concerned about why their communities are so car oriented and how they can’t get urban retail or office with out heavy subsidies and attached parking. They lamented that while they have civic leaders lined up to support the opera or a sports team, they can’t get them interested in economic development solutions beyond that. They recognize the strategic moves they’ve made weighed against pure luck. They each struggle with the same types of issues we do.
Nashville (region) has 20 years of auto production that drives their economy. They have one of the last old-school music production markets. They have Vanderbilt which drives the medical industry. And they have waitresses and bartenders like everyone else.
My point is… Some of this we can replicate and some we can’t. We have an opportunity to take a step. We are trying to take a step toward future opportunities. Production and trade of products seems like an opportunity that fits us. This is not the same low skill manufacturing of the past. It demands higher skills and pays higher wages to those that are ready. We also can play a role in lab work and diagnostics. Not all PhDs but mid skill work needed there. We are thinking beyond, way beyond, forklift drivers.
U of M and other colleges are working on this but that is a post all it’s own.
Final point and this is way over simplified.
For every CEO there are 5 VPs. For every VP there are 5 managers. Every manager = 5 supervisors and every supervisor = 5 or 10 workers.
I cannot stress enough that we are not preparing enough workers to attract enough jobs to support anyone farther up the food chain. This is a terribly heartless way to look at it. But if human capital as a commodity is important, we are not competing. But we could, and quickly, in the mid skill segment which could in turn make us more attractive for industry that also drives higher skill needs.
When we can move people up the skill ladder and into jobs, then opportunity expands for people with no skills in low wage jobs and with high skills in leadership or creative positions.
Frank, please start thinking about what you can build here instead of acquire somewhere else (not that you don’t). This is when the magic really happens. And, if you do jump ship… Please think about setting your sights higher than, well, you know.
Also… We should all think about our network and relationships. One of our hurdles is less about skills and more about connections. We have to purposefully work to link industry at all levels to our schools, colleges and training centers. We need to anticipate opportunities and guide people to them before industry pulls up stakes and before candidates look for other towns.
Look, Memphis is not an incubator for skill sets already in places such as Seattle, San Fran, Portland …
Some cities just have to “ride the hoss that brung’em”. Some cities thrive and citizens do very well in centers of heavy manufacturing, or mining for instance…look at Williston right now. Other cities are tourist meccas, making crap loads of money in the service industries such as Orlando, Florida. Other cities are huge banking centers : NYC, Chicago Charlotte, etc.
Most of the residents in Memphis TN aren’t “rocket scientists” either and will never be. That’s a niche that Huntsville has mastered very well.
You can’t be everything to everybody, all the time.
If Memphians can be put to work in “repetitive” jobs, tossing boxes, loading trucks/planes, serving food, making widgets, then sobeit.
Memphians are poor and undereducated, and that’s not going to turn around in even 15 years !! put these people to work doing what they can be trained to do. These dummies aren’t going to medical school, law school or become esteemed bs urban planners and architects. The smart college graduates and MBAs aren’t sticking around if you have noticed.
Education is the longterm “real” solution,, but these folks aren’t going to change and learn FAST enough to shape Memphis TN into some sort of progressive, finely-tuned urban powerhouse driven by keenly skills workers needed for the 21st century competition.
Stop dreaming.
Sounds like Anon 1:32 is the same troll of yore who has been repeatedly removed from this blog and others. Anon 1:32, perhaps it is time you finally move on with your life instead of polluting the internet with your repetitive and typical bs nonsense.
If you read what ANON 132 wrote, it makes perfect sense ! Don’t know why
that makes the poster a troll – because it was the truth maybe ?
…and the same troll is back with the oh so predictable multiple personality disorder…awesome. Sad, but at least they follow a pattern.